Top Telegram Traders & Groups

Goal:

Provide you with a number that represents "how practical (good entry and exit) and profitable (high confidence of good, consistent returns) it is to follow this caller or group's token calls."

What ELO really is:

$$\text{ELO}\;=\; \underbrace{\text{Sortino Ratio}}_{\text{quality per trade}} \;\times\; \underbrace{\text{Number of calls}}_{\text{consistency}}$$

Find a more detailed explanation of each component and adjuments made below.

For sure reach out to @shirtlessfounder on Telegram if you have any suggestions for improving the system. We're continuously iterating on the ELO calcs.

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1. What gets counted as a “call”

A "call" in the system is defined as the first mention of a token per user in a 30 day time window.

Rule	Reason
First token mention only (per user, per 30 d)	Filters out echo-spam and reposts.

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2. Measuring the performance of a call

The performance of a call is dictated by the mcap multiple achieved at the exit mcap (@ T0+3min) from the entry mcap (@ T0).

Return per call:

$$r = \frac{mc_{3m} - mc_{0}}{mc_{0}}$$

Some nuances were applied to approximate for call actionability:

Rule	Reason
Get entry mcap at time-of-call + 20 seconds	Gives realistic reaction time after seeing a call notification and entry mcap for followers
3-minute holding window (mc₀ → mc₃m)	Normalizes TP "strategy" across all calls. Average holding time among active trenchers.

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3. Stat-checks before calculating caller ELO

• Sample-size floor – A dynamic threshold of calls is applied per the look-back window before an ELO is given to the user.

• Lower-bound gate – The lower 95 % one-sided confidence limit of the mean return to cut out lucky moons that are statistically indistinguishable from noise.

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4. Calculating the two factors

Ingredient	How we compute it	Why it matters
Sortino ratio	See formula below and explanation here. Target = 4% returns.	Rewards upside while punishing only downside.
Number of calls (n)	Count number of first token mentions per lookback window.	More first mentions = higher conviction the ratio is real.

$$\text{sortino ratio}\; = \dfrac{\bar r - \text{target}} {\sqrt{\tfrac{1}{n}\displaystyle\sum_{r_i<\text{target}}\!\bigl(\text{target}-r_i\bigr)^2}}$$

ELO is a product of these two factors. A caller with a Sortino of 2.6 over 38 valid calls ends up with an ELO = 98.8.

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5. Continuous data refreshing and lookback windows

• Slice size – ratings are re-evaluated every 12 h slice using only data that existed before that slice.

• Lookback windows – on the leaderboard, we calculate 1d, 7d, 30d and all-time ELOs for each user. Each time period has its own call threshold that's dynamically adjusted according to the dataset.

• Decay – calls gradually lose weight (half-life ≈ 7 d) so stale edge bleeds away.

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6. Why the method is reliable

Common pitfall	How Caller Elo avoids it
One-hit wonder pumps	Needs a threshold of calls & positive lower-CI.
Echo-chamber hype	First-mention rule prevents credit for copy-paste alerts.
Pump and dump callers	Downside in Sortino + optional width-test caps their score.
Back-test overfitting	Strictly rolling, out-of-sample scoring; no hindsight.

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TL;DR

1. Clean call data → first token mention + call actionability adjustments + 3-minute return.

2. Caller consistency → callers must achieve a threshold of calls before ELO is assigned.

3. Risk / downside adjustments → Sortino ratio calculation.

4. ELO Score → Sortino ratio × number of calls.

That’s the ELO you see next to every alert and on the global leaderboard. Again, reach out to @shirtlessfounder on Telegram if you have a suggestion on improving the system.